The New York Times. It was supposed to have been on life support when TV was introduced in the 1950s, the same with home video in the early 1980s, cable TV and home theater in the 1990s, and now streaming in the 2020s. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. I’m not sure too many industry insiders outside of the marketing department at Sony would have predicted the movie to be quite this strong and setting records as January closes. That’s because Jason Kilar, the C.E.O. Movie Theaters Are Dying. This episode of “Sway” was produced by Nayeema Raza, Heba Elorbany, Matt Kwong and Vishakha Darbha and edited by Paula Szuchman; fact-checking by Kate Sinclair; music and sound design by Isaac Jones. was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he's at odds with the theaters and filmmakers he needs on his side. Where the North American market is largely saturated, International still has areas with significant growth potential such as Africa and the Middle East, which have been untapped until recently. Really? Not exactly the stuff of delirious and unrestrained optimism, is it? The coronavirus pandemic is killing movie theaters, but there's still hope. The US movie theater industry has been clinging to the hope that a future blockbuster would save its devastated business. You may opt-out by. They not only enjoy company; they positively hunger for contact with family, friends, and even strangers. BreakingProse; JewelCrafting; BeadBaby One of the most knowledgeable industry insiders is Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst for Comscore and his analysis of the movie industry in 2020 echoes the above sentiments. After five months of pandemic-forced closure, the big movie theater chains reopened in roughly 68 percent of the United States by Labor Day weekend, in large part … I previously served as President of Distribution at Sony Pictures as well as in top-level executive positions at both STX Entertainment and Fathom Events. That is, at least until the next big thing comes along. Articles expounding the death of movie-going almost exclusively look at domestic attendance and box office and in doing so they miss the real story. It’s those who look beyond the clickbait headlines who’ll see the real story. Not bad for an industry under siege from deep pocketed conglomerates like Netflix, Amazon and Apple, and a media more interested in provocative headlines than in-depth analyses. No one is going to the movies anymore, everyone is staying home and binge watching Disney+, Netflix, Amazon, HBO Max, Peacock, and the other 641 streaming channels. To put it in perspective, automobile sales in the U.S. has fallen from 7.8 million in 2007 to 4.7 million in 2019. June 3, 2020. For every disappointing release such as the recent box office duds The Turning or Underwater, which might have been able to earn more than their domestic box office totals via the streaming route, there’s a Knives Out or even Bad Boys For Life which have significantly outperformed expectations. Is it dying? Those looking to drive a wooden stake into cinema love to trot out attendance figures which show that movie-going in North America has fallen from 1.58 billion in 2002 to 1.24 billion in 2019. But let’s look at seven reasons to be optimistic about the film business in the coming year and, perhaps more importantly, in the long term. To further the point, it’s worth noting that while 2019 box office was down 4.2% in North America, it was up 7.2% in 2018, down 2.6% in 2017 and, that’s right, up 2.7% in 2016. The Covid-19 pandemic has provided powerful evidence for the irrepressibility of human sociability. AMC Theatres is closing all their theaters nationwide in response to … We've got a young baby at home and wanted some alone time. The windows will continue to shrink and one day will go away entirely. A podcast about power, hosted by Kara Swisher (@karaswisher). Events; Live Show Times; Arts & Crafts. 46 minutes ago | By . People walk outside a closed AMC movie theater on March 17, 2020 in Santa Monica, California. “It would be naive to think that the movie industry does not face challenges in 2020,” Mr. Dergarabedian states, “but this is true for any given box office year.” Discussing the uniquely uncertain and divergent nature of the movie business he adds, “the only guarantee is that the inherently cyclical—and yes, unpredictable—nature of the business will continue in 2021, 2022 and beyond. Everything you hear is that the industry is a dying breed,’” Fykes says, but Wright insisted that a theater could be a community hub. The 800 Pound Gorilla Loses Some Weight in 2020. Media outlets who are strictly focused on exhibitors’ stock prices often miss the real story and cultivate a theatrical chicken-and-the-egg scenario. The articles proclaiming that cinema is dying. Maybe. 23. The movie business is infamous for weathering all storms that have blown its way over the years. Now most in the industry are looking at another possible down year in 2020, perhaps by as much as 5-6% from a box office standpoint. The best way to classify box office revenue trends over the last 20 years is by using the phrase, “consistently inconsistent”. Are movie theaters going away? Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow?. Despite a slew of superhero sequels and fanboy comic book movies hitting theaters, the number of frequent young moviegoers declined last year, according to the industry’s latest figures. Advertisement. To answer the above question, no, cinema is not dying. And there’s the real story. During my time at Sony, I crafted and instituted release plans for over 60 films that grossed over $100 million at the domestic box office and over 100 films that finished first at the box office on their opening weekend. Five of the nine Best Picture nominees come from major studios and this year’s slate looks to have at least a dozen major studio releases which could figure into awards consideration for 2021. Pachter: People Aren’t ‘Dying’ to See a Movie in Theaters. Increasingly, the success or failure of Hollywood movies come not from Pittsburgh and Peoria but Shanghai and Seoul. No one who appreciates movies wants to see an amazing orchestrated film on there stinky VIZIO television. But with Regal Cinemas' … Studios say they’re … Box office figures courtesy of Comscore, Statista, and Box Office Mojo, I have over 20 years of experience in the entertainment business and am the Founder and CEO of Scout 53 Entertainment Consulting, which provides global entertainment. Warner Bros. has announced that it is releasing its entire 2021 slate of movies on HBO Max at the same time they will hit theaters. In my column from December which looked at the 20 biggest films of 2020 I projected that 7 of the top 20 films for the year would come from Disney while Warners would have 5 and studios such as Sony—which is off to a flying start with Bad Boys For Life—and Paramount, yes even Paramount, would have strong years as well. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? Movie Theaters Are Dying. There’s something about seeing a movie on the big screen that will just never get old. Cineworld Group, the owner of Regal Cinemas, will suspend operations at all of its theaters in the United States and the United Kingdom beginning on … Mr. Kilar is only seven months into the job, and he just unleashed one of the biggest industry shake-ups in recent history. To answer the above question, no, cinema is not dying. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? If those producers had taken the Netflix money and run there’s no chance they would have been able to achieve an ROI approaching what they have achieved on a global box office basis. To add insult to injury, the sharpest decline occurred amongst the 14-24 age group. They need to stop competing on "convenience" and start focusing on "experience." Lifestyles of the ‘More Famous Than Rich’, Jane Goodall on Chimps, Presidents and Other Alpha Males, At-Home Covid Tests and Other Powers of a Tech Billionaire, ‘Some Version of the Apocalypse Is Inevitable’, Sarah Cooper Is Tired of Being Donald Trump, Illustration by The New York Times; photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images. But it certainly is evolving, as every industry has to as it withstands challenges and seeks new opportunities in its battle to preserve its consumer base which now has a vast array of options from which to choose for their entertainment attention. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? What this means for cinema chains is that their capital expenditures should be a bit more reasonable in 2020 and beyond. Most people aren’t hermits. Mihir Kumar Jha - December 10, 2020. was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he’s at odds with the theaters … featured; Top Stories; Movie Theaters Are Dying. Listen and subscribe. Will this still be a pervasive issue as studios such as Warners and Universal debut their own streaming channels? So, going to the movie theater to see Wonder Woman would not be the cleanest, best idea. For a start, they'll need to enhance the in-theatre experience beyond what's up on the … As director Christopher Nolan told The Hollywood Reporter, “some of our industry’s biggest filmmakers and most important movie stars went to bed the night before thinking they were working for the greatest movie studio and woke up to find out they were working for the worst streaming service.”. Lifestyles of the ‘More Famous Than Rich’. Each time, cinemas adapted and movie-going remained one of the most reliable, out-of-the-home entertainment options that people could enjoy. Once a 50/50 split between domestic and international, worldwide box office now skews 70/30 with 71% of global box office revenue in 2019 coming from overseas territories. By. Sadly, it's about to suffer a mortal wound, right there in your living room. But it is certain. Movie theaters have at first thrived and now survived largely on false scarcity. Movie Theaters Are Dying. The majority of people are finding more value in streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Fire Stick and Amazon Instant Video because they’re cheaper in the long run, easier, and more convenient. I have over 20 years of experience in the entertainment business and am the Founder and CEO of Scout 53 Entertainment Consulting, which provides global entertainment business analysis, content distribution and revenue generation opportunities for cinemas, producers and in-theatre tech entities. This question has been around for a few years now. For those happy to dabble in morally grey areas, torrents or free film websites are always an option, too – but should always be avoided. The WarnerMedia C.E.O. Movie theater attendance plunged in 2014, hitting numbers that haven't been this low since 1995. Attendance fell 8%, continuing a decade-long trend. What they fail to mention is that 1.24 billion is actually higher than years like 1995 (1.22 billion) and 1980 (1.02 billion). The movie business is perennially "dying" from something; but the coronavirus threat to theaters is real. Special thanks to Renan Borelli, Liriel Higa and Kathy Tu. Erik Gruenwedel. For movie theatres to survive, they'll need more than digital capabilities. We’ve all seen them. But as we know, the movie industry is unique in that it has more ups and downs than any other business. If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. Twitter. Is the movie industry evolving? Movie Theaters Are Dying. But is cinema really dying? Every Monday and Thursday, from New York Times Opinion. The Threat of the Collapse of “Windows” Seems to Be Subsiding. Movie theater executives and filmmakers are reeling. Movie Theaters Are Dying. However in 2020 the studio doesn’t have an Avengers movie, a Pixar sequel or a Star Wars entry. was trying to drag Hollywood into the 21st century, but now he's at odds with the theaters and filmmakers he needs on his side. Drive-in movie theaters also cost less to operate and maintain than the regular theaters of today, according to Moore. In this episode of “Sway,” Kara Swisher questions Mr. Kilar on whether he just delivered the final death blow to struggling theaters, how he’ll make good with Hollywood’s top talent, and what films will look like when — as Mr. Kilar predicts — blockbuster budgets surpass a billion dollars. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. Global Box Office and Global Attendance Hit All-Time Highs in 2019. If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater… Certainly, cinema chains continue to upgrade their theaters as moviegoers demand a more comfortable, multi-sensory movie-going experience but much of those upgrades have already come to fruition in the form of the auditorium retrofitting, 4D and large screen installations, and dine-in capabilities. I bet you haven’t read many of those articles, have you? That’s going to be more complicated than it sounds. Projected to possibly, and I stress the word possibly, hit the $100 million mark, Bad Boys For Life began 2020 by flying out of the gate to the tune of a $73 million domestic opening weekend and has now officially become the highest grossing non-expansion January release in history. Stock prices for the three major North American circuits also fell. If you’re one of the culprits who is regularly streaming movies online alongside thousands of u… The WarnerMedia C.E.O. Here's how. A bitterly disappointing 2017 gave way to a record-setting 2018 so it’s very difficult to turn speed bumps into trends which may or may not be there or that may change next month or even next week. WhatsApp. Cinema is dying. Pinterest. The studios now conspire to ensure release windows are maintained. AMC Theatres has the newest movies near you They can’t die. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? A view outside Cinemas 1, 2 & 3 movie theater during the coronavirus pandemic on May 18, 2020 in New York City. Articles proclaiming the death of cinema revolve around depressed stock prices while depressed stock prices are often the result of a plethora of business articles trumpeting, you guessed it, the death of cinema. Listen and subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | RSS | How To If you want to be the first to watch “Dune,” “Godzilla vs. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. Let me tell you about my experience this weekend. But it certainly is evolving, as every industry has to as it withstands challenges and seeks … So to recap, yes, it does appear on paper at least that 2020 might be another down year at the box office. Did Jason Kilar Deal the Final Blow? Yes. To recap, unless there are surprise box office hits buried in what appears to be a rather sedate release schedule, 2020 may indeed end up being a challenging year for Hollywood and cinema chains. That’s because Jason Kilar, the C.E.O. of WarnerMedia, announced last week that the full slate of Warner Bros. films will be simultaneously released in theaters and on the company’s streaming service, HBO Max. Dennis Lim director of programming, Film at Lincoln Center The takeaway from the New York Times piece is not that movies are dying, it’s that Hollywood is in … Find movies near you, view show times, watch movie trailers and buy movie tickets. In their current state, most cinemas are quickly becoming a thing of the past. In fact, box-office as a whole ended up plus 11% for the month. Call in to a Show: Coming Soon Channels . Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Opinion Movie Theaters Are Dying. Cinema chains spent the last several years warding off advances from, first, the major studios, and then from streaming entities such as Netflix and Amazon in their quest to shrink the theatrical window from the current 80-90 days to 30-45 days. Home featured Movie Theaters Are Dying. The movie theater as we know it is poised to die a slow, mostly peaceful death. I live in Los Angeles with my wife and 15 rescue animals. I write about all aspects of the entertainment industry, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights. Certainly, studios are still concentrating on tentpoles but this year’s Best Picture Oscar nominees show that they can also still make quality films. In 2019, Disney’s box office gross more than doubled its next largest competitor, Warners. Granted, 2019 was not a banner year for North American movie-going, very few dispute that fact. Movie theaters might start opening up as soon as mid-June. Attendance Isn’t As Bad As It’s Being Made Out to Be. Attention Congress: The Movies Are Dying Again, For Real – Deadline The WarnerMedia C.E.O. NEWS ANALYSIS — Wedbush Securities media analyst Michael Pachter remains bearish on the movie theater business, arguing exhibitors’ aggressive plans to re-open screens during a lull in the coronavirus pandemic is wishful thinking. However if you dig deeper into the numbers and trends you’ll see there is some hope for the movie business in its fight to ward off the battalion of doomsayers. Thus, any sweeping pronouncements about the potential for a dismal 2020 in movie theaters made this early in the year should be tempered with the understanding that there are many variables in the mix and many surprises yet to come.”. I don’t think they’re dying. My wife and I wanted to get out of the house. In a year where we are somewhat devoid of major IP franchises, Hollywood will have to rely on what look like mid-range hits on paper breaking out and over-performing. That 12 year period shows a nearly 40% decline, yet few are suggesting that car buying is a “dead” endeavor. Not at this moment. Studios are realizing that artistic success and box office success can co-exist. Don't be scared, the movie industry isn't dying. The drop in attendance in the last 12 years is only a cumulative 11%. COVID-19 has spread to most … 10 Dec 2020 12:00, Headline News. Movie Theaters Aren’t Dying—They’re Being Murdered The Covid-19 pandemic is providing a perfect cover for media giants bent on replacing theatrical movie going with streaming. Kong” or the new “Matrix” movie this year (yes, there’s a fourth one) — you won’t have to line up at a movie theater. Granted, Disney should still win the box office market share derby handily but it won’t be a rout in 2020 that it has been in the past few years and spreading the wealth is actually beneficial for the industry and especially so to exhibitors who rightfully worry about the effect having a behemoth-like Disney running up the score will have on their film rental and, subsequently, their bottom lines. While it may be easy, and even in vogue, to paint 2020 as a continuation of a trend toward fewer people going to the movies it would behoove those in the industry, and especially those who write about it, to blow away the sawdust and see the real picture. We decided to go see the 9:00 show of the latest Tarentino film. Movie Theaters Are Dying. The last 10-15 years have seen the lion’s share of Oscar nominated Best Picture titles come from independent studios such as Fox Searchlight, Sony Classics, and Annapurna as major studios decided to sit the Oscars out in favor of tentpole releases. Facebook. Yes, but again theatrical will remain the engine by which success or failure will be measured and a decision to premiere a “film” on a streaming channel instead of on thousands of cinema screens around the world will be one that is not taken lightly. 0. This is not sustainable. 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